The European Economic Union is incomplete, which makes it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks such as the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Reform proposals have been under discussion for several years, but have consistently been hampered by differences of opinion between countries and political groups. Here we present the results of a survey conducted in 2018 amongst members of the national parliaments in France, Germany and Italy on European integration in areas relating to risk-sharing and fiscal institutions, inviting them to express their views on proposals such as the creation of aEuropean unemployment insurance, Eurobonds (also known as ‘eurobonds’) or a European tax. We find that nationality and political affiliation are both key determinants of support for these proposals, with the former being overshadowed by the latter. The agreement reached on 21 July 2020 at the most recent European summit includes a notable innovation involving financial transfers between Member States and the issuance of European bonds: it therefore represents one of the options we had proposed to the MP / parliamentarians / members of parliament surveyed. Nevertheless, the recovery plan adopted at that summit remains a one-off measure and thus leaves open the question of the future of European integration.
Deepening European integration? Findings from a survey of German, French and Italian MPs / parliamentarians / members of parliament
The purpose of this note is to analyse the areas of disagreement regarding proposals relating to risk-sharing and the budgetary institutions of the European Economic Union. It also seeks to identify areas of common ground where a political agreement might be possible.
Reference IPP Policy Brief No. 56
Presentation
Key Results
- At first glance, the responses reveal differing views across countries on most questions, with Italy in favour of greater integration and Germany opposed to it. France occupies a middle ground, closer to the Italian position.
- A breakdown of the results by party reveals a more nuanced picture. To compare countries with one another, a political affiliation indicator is constructed based on the national party’s affiliation with the political groups formed in the European Parliament.
- National representatives associated with the Group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) at European level show strong support for the creation of new fiscal institutions or risk-sharing institutions (European unemployment insurance, Eurobonds), in contrast to MEPs associated with the European People’s Party (EPP).
- MPs affiliated with the Renew Europe group occupy a middle ground, favouring fiscal institutions but showing less support for the creation of risk-sharing mechanisms.
- There is a wide range of opinions amongst Germany’s AfD, Italy’s Lega and the Five Star Movement: the three parties hold divergent views on the future of integration.
- Our econometric analysis shows that party affiliation has greater explanatory power than nationality for all issues. This clearly demonstrates that the results of national MP / parliamentarian / member of parliament elections could alter the overall level of support for each issue.
