The authors scrutinise the management of French public finances against three criteria: the clarity of spending priorities, the reliability of forecasting tools and the credibility of medium-term trajectories. The authors analyse the nature of budgetary information and the way in which it is constructed from these three perspectives. We examine the trade-offs between different functions of public expenditure, which are difficult to interpret due to the overlap between budgetary documents and national accounts. We outline avenues for consideration regarding the technical improvement of forecasting models, which would help to make the target announced for 2026 more precise and credible.
Finally, the authors compare France with its European neighbours in terms of forecast discrepancies in the medium-term budgetary trajectories presented in the main budgetary documents; and the authors discuss national and European mechanisms designed to strengthen the credibility of multi-annual public finance frameworks.
