Changing course after A-levels is a widespread phenomenon in France: in 2022, a third of sixth-formers who had just started higher education submitted new course choices via Parcoursup. However, these changes in educational pathways are sometimes perceived as individual failures or as a waste of public resources. But what is the reality? This paper presents the first large-scale causal evaluation of the effects of a change of course after A-levels on students’ academic pathways and the attainment of a higher education qualification, drawing on comprehensive administrative data.
What impact does changing course in the first year of higher education have on students’ success?
This paper presents the first large-scale causal evaluation of the effects of a change of direction after A-levels on students’ educational pathways and the attainment of a higher education qualification.
Reference IPP Policy Brief No. 122
Presentation
Key Results
- Being accepted by a narrow margin for a change-of-course application increases the probability of re-enrolling at least once in higher education in the years following these applications by 38 percentage points (96 per cent versus 58 per cent), and by 23 percentage points the probability of obtaining a higher education qualification (69 per cent versus 46 per cent). These effects result in an increase of nearly one year in the total duration of higher education studies for students admitted by a narrow margin compared with those rejected by a narrow margin.
- In terms of the type of qualification obtained, students who were narrowly admitted after changing their course of study are significantly more likely to obtain a BTS or DUT qualification, and this increase more than offsets the concurrent decrease in the probability of obtaining a general bachelor’s degree.
- A policy of making additional places available to students seeking to change their course of study could generate social benefits exceeding the public expenditure incurred: according to conservative estimates, every net euro spent would result, in the long term, in approximately 2.7 euros of social gains.
Reference study
Bechichi, Nagui, ‘Second Chances in Higher Education: Turning Setbacks into New Opportunities’, in The Influence of Pre-enrolment Platforms on Differences in Course Choice and Success in French Higher Education, PhD thesis, EHESS, 2026.
Method and Data
The methodology employed involves studying the pathways of students seeking to change their course of study, by comparing those who were narrowly admitted to their chosen course with those who were narrowly rejected.
This study draws on several comprehensive administrative data sources that enable us to trace students’ educational pathways and academic success in higher education. The following data sources are used: (i) data on course choices made on the Admission Post-Bac and Parcoursup pre-enrolment platforms; (ii) enrolment data for various higher education programmes (SCOLARITÉ for STS/CPGE programmes, and SISE-Inscrits for other programmes); (iii) graduation data (ENQ24 for BTS programmes, and SISE-Diplômés for other qualifications, including DUTs, bachelor’s degrees and professional bachelor’s degrees).
For the analysis, the pathways of students who expressed a wish to change direction after A-levels between 2012 and 2017 were tracked for up to six years after their course placements were finalised.
Partners
This study was carried out under a research agreement with the Directorate for Evaluation, Forward Planning and Performance at the Ministry of National Education (MEN-DEPP) and the Sub-Directorate for Information Systems and Statistical Studies of the Ministry for Higher Education, Research and Space (MESRE-SIES).
The study presented in this paper received support from the Ardian Foundation as part of the scientific partnership
‘Access and Success in Higher Education’ between the Institut des politiques publiques and Blueprint Labs at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
This brief has also received support from the Chair in Education Policy and Social Mobility.