The TAXIPP-LIFE model projects changes in the French population over the next fifty years, individuals’ family and career trajectories, their pension levels and whether they may become dependent on care. The aim is to examine the redistribution of the French tax and social security system from a life-cycle perspective. Traditionally, research on redistribution has examined the impact of taxation and social transfers within an annual framework. A dynamic model enables us to analyse the effect of a pension reform or a change in trajectories of loss of independence.
Using census and administrative data, TAXIPP-LIFE creates a representative sample of the French population, in which each individual follows their own family, career and health trajectory. The ‘demography’ module models fertility, marriages, divorces and mortality. The ‘career’ module provides information on individuals’ career trajectories, employment status and earnings at each age. The ‘pension’ module then uses the PENSIPP calculator to simulate retirement pensions, whilst the choice of retirement age is determined by a behavioural module. Survey data complement this information. For example, linking the data with the Care-Ménage dataset allows us to add a ‘dependence’ module and to determine the prevalence of different levels of dependency amongst older people. In conjunction with the TAXIPP model, social and tax legislation is then simulated year by year.
This model therefore provides a life-cycle simulation, covering in particular income, marital status and, for older people, pension levels and dependency status. It enables the simulation of reforms over the long term and the study of their redistributive and delayed effects.
