Which areas gave rise to the “yellow vests” (gilets jaunes)? From the very first Saturday of mobilisation, this movement stood out both for its local character and its nationwide reach. Using previously unavailable data on Facebook mobilisation, we show a strong correlation between online mobilisation (on Facebook) and offline mobilisation (roundabout blockades), and we propose a detailed and contrasting map of the protest movement, at the level of both départements and employment zones. By simultaneously controlling for the various political, economic and geographical factors likely to explain the origins of the movement, we highlight the major role played by mobility-related issues, in particular the reduction of the speed limit on secondary roads to 80 km/h and commuting distances.
The geography of the yellow vests movement
This study discusses the factors likely to explain the mobilisation of the yellow vests movement in its early stages, grouping them into four broad categories: political preferences, government decisions, socio-economic factors, and the geographical constraints of local areas.
Reference Note IPP n°39
Presentation
Key Results
- We seek to identify the determinants of the mobilisation of the “yellow vests” movement in its early stages.
- Collecting data from Facebook and locating roundabout blockades allows us to map the “yellow vests” movement both online and offline.
- The results of the 2017 presidential election, the local share of diesel vehicles, and the poverty rate among retirees appear to be weakly correlated with mobilisation.
- Mobility, as measured by the reduction of the speed limit on secondary roads to 80 km/h and commuting distances, appears, by contrast, to be an important factor in explaining the origins of the movement.
