Dynamic microsimulation of the pension scheme for local authority and hospital service staff

Context

Pensions for local authority and hospital staff amount to around 15 billion euros a year. Whilst these pensions represent a significant public expenditure, the factors determining their levels and trends are still poorly understood. The aim of the project is to develop a dynamic micro-simulation model of the scheme. The objective is to be able to simulate the long-term impact of past or potential reforms to this system.

Presentation

In partnership with the CNRACL, which administers pensions for local authority and hospital service civil servants, the IPP analyses the factors determining civil servants’ career paths and the age at which they retire. As the careers of French civil servants are governed by a complex set of rules (pay scales, grades, index-linked pay rises), the aim is to develop better models of civil service pay policies and their impact on pension entitlements. Furthermore, the specific characteristics of this population necessitate research into its demographics. In particular, the IPP analyses the factors influencing birth rates within the population in order to model them. The project is based on an analysis of the relevant legislation, as well as on the analysis of socio-demographic, career and pension data relating to civil servants.