Microsimulation of complementary pensions in the private sector in the long run

Motivation: The organisation “Agirc-Arrco”, which manages complementary pensions of employees in the private sector in France, allocates 77 billion euros of pensions per year, and covers 70% of the working population. This big weight in the French pension system calls for a good understanding of careers in the private sector and a precise insight on individual retirement behaviours, in order to evaluate the sustainability of this pension scheme and to make ex-ante and ex-post pension reform evaluations.

The project: Using exhaustive and long-run data on individuals affiliated to the Agirc-Arrco, this project aims at developing a dynamic microsimulation model in order to make lung-run predictions on the private sector pension scheme. This model aims at combining estimations on demographic evolutions, affiliations to this scheme, workers’ career and wage path, and individual retirement behaviours . All these estimations will be used to make predictions on the financial sustainability of the scheme and to estimate the cost and the redistributive effects of past or potential future pension reforms. The model is developed jointly with the Agirc-Arrco’s statistical teams.

Funding: Agirc-Arrco

IPP researchers associated with this project: Benjamin Belrhomari, Mahdi Ben Jelloul, Antoine Bozio, Brice Fabre, Simon Rabaté.

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