The almost continuous decline in the birth rate in France since 2010 is leading to a marked fall in pupil numbers in primary education, a trend that is set to continue for at least a decade. Against a backdrop of constraints on public finances, this development raises the question of whether education spending should be adjusted: should the number of teachers be reduced to achieve budgetary savings, or should this opportunity be seized to improve learning conditions by reducing class sizes? This chapter explores the implications of this choice based on detailed data and forward-looking simulations. The study highlights the economic trade-offs associated with different scenarios for managing teaching staff numbers, and emphasises the risks of widening regional disparities in class sizes if the allocation of teachers is not subject to coordinated planning.
Class sizes and regional inequalities: what strategy should be adopted in the face of population decline?
Presentation
Key Results
Pupil numbers in primary education have already fallen by 8 per cent between 2015 and 2024 and are expected to fall by a further 19 per cent by 2034, with significant disparities across different regions.
Despite the splitting of classes in priority education areas, French classrooms remain among the most overcrowded in Europe, whilst research highlights the benefits of a better pupil-teacher ratio on academic performance and future earnings, particularly for the most disadvantaged pupils.
Assuming class sizes remain constant, the demographic decline would allow for the elimination of around 50,000 teaching posts by 2034, reducing annual public expenditure by approximately 3.4 billion C by that date.
In the long term, however, this option would be less socially beneficial than maintaining teacher numbers, which would reduce the average class size from 22.4 to 18.2 pupils between 2024 and 2034, resulting in an estimated economic gain of 4.5 billion C and additional tax revenue of around 2.9 billion C.
To address regional inequalities in teacher-to-pupil ratios, this strategy should be accompanied by a targeted reallocation of teachers, which could be achieved by capping class sizes at 12 pupils in priority education areas and by adjusting class sizes outside priority education areas according to the social profile of the departments.
Read the study (including appendices)
View the presentation of the study given at the conference on 30 June
Partners
The authors would like to thank the Directorate for Evaluation, Forward Planning and Performance at the Ministry of National Education and Youth (MENJ-DEPP) for providing the data used in this study.