Since 2010, France has seen a marked decline in the birth rate. This has led to a fall in pupil numbers in primary schools since 2016 and in secondary schools since 2021. Particularly pronounced in Paris, this demographic shift is also affecting the rest of the country and raises major challenges regarding the allocation of educational resources. In major cities, where state-subsidised private schools – funded to the tune of nearly 75 per cent by the State and local authorities – are well established, the fall in pupil numbers is tending to upset the balance in the distribution of pupils between the public and private sectors.
Population decline and public-private dynamics: towards greater school segregation in major cities?
This paper analyses, on the basis of detailed administrative data, the mechanisms driving the growth in the share of private education in major cities facing population decline, as well as its consequences for social segregation between schools.
Reference IPP Policy Brief No. 124
Presentation
Key Results
- In Paris, the annual number of births fell from 31,440 to 21,484 between 2010 and 2024, representing a 32 per cent decrease over the period.
- This demographic decline is having an impact on school pupil numbers, with a corresponding shift in the age at which pupils enter each year group: in Paris, the number of pupils in Year 1 has fallen by 19.5 per cent since 2016, and the number in Year 7 by 9.8 per cent since 2020.
- In the capital, the private sector under contract has maintained full classes despite the demographic decline, with the result that almost the entire reduction in pupil numbers has been absorbed by the public sector.
- With pupil numbers remaining almost constant in the private sector but falling sharply overall, the share of private education is automatically increasing in Paris: up 4.5 percentage points in Year 1 since 2016 and up 3.3 percentage points in Year 7 since 2020.
- If the trend in private school enrolment figures in Paris continues along the lines observed since the start of the population decline, this dynamic will persist over the next decade (the timeframe for which enrolment figures can be reliably projected): the proportion of pupils in private schools is projected to reach 33.6 per cent in Year 1 by 2030 and 49.4 per cent in Year 7 by 2035.
- In Paris, between 2020 and 2024, the proportion of Year 6 pupils from very affluent social backgrounds enrolling in a state-subsidised private middle school / lower secondary school rose from 49 per cent to 55 per cent. Based on the assumptions used for the projections, this proportion is expected to reach 72 per cent by 2035.
- In several major French cities, which were affected by demographic decline at a later stage, similar trends are beginning to emerge.
Method and Data
Data
The analyses presented in this note were carried out using data from INSEE and the Ministry of National Education: 1) time series on the number of births by municipality, available as open data (INSEE, 2025a,b); 2) the database on primary school pupil numbers (MEN-DEPP, 2026a), also available as open data for the academic years 2009 to 2024, which lists all primary and elementary schools and provides details of their characteristics (public or private sector, number of classes, pupil numbers by year group); 3) the database of pupil numbers at the start of the academic year in secondary schools (MEN-DEPP, 2026b) for the academic years 2002 to 2024, which lists all secondary school pupils and provides details of their school as well as certain socio-demographic characteristics (in particular the socio-occupational category of their legal guardians).
Methodology
Projections of pupil numbers and their distribution between the public and private sectors are carried out separately for each of the twenty largest French cities. They are based on the following assumptions:
- The number of pupils entering Year 1 between 2025 and 2030 is projected based on trends in births registered in the municipality in question between 2019 and 2024. It is assumed that the ratio between the number of Year 1 pupils and the number of births six years earlier will remain equal to its average value observed between 2022 and 2024 (0.63 for Paris).
- The number of Year 6 pupils between 2025 and 2035 is projected based on trends in the number of births to residents in the municipality between 2014 and 2024, assuming that the ratio of the number of Year 6 pupils to the number of births eleven years earlier will remain equal to its average value observed between 2015 and 2024 (0.68 for Paris).
- In the absence of an explicit policy to reduce the number of teaching posts allocated to private education, it is assumed that the trend in pupil numbers enrolled in the private sector, for the year group under consideration (Year 1 or Year 6) and in the municipality under study, will continue the trend observed since the start of the demographic decline (−0.49 per cent per year in Year 1 and −0.36 per cent in Year 6 in Paris).
- The socio-economic composition of the Year 6 pupil cohort is projected by extending the trend observed over the last ten years. The proportion of each socio-economic category is extrapolated linearly for the period 2025–2035 based on past trends.
- The social composition of Year 6 pupils attending private schools is projected using the same method
